Major House of Representatives Update

As published by Bowers News Media

Good afternoon. This is another update on the balance of power in the House of Representatives, and thus the fight against the Trump / Republican agenda.

Balance of power timeline. Here is a detailed look at where the balance of power in the House will stand on specific days between now and April 2, 2025. This level of detail is necessarily, as it reveals the difficulty Republicans will have in passing legislation next year.

Yesterday: Republicans 219–214 Democrats. Big news last night out of California, with Democratic challenger Derek Tran declaring victory in the 45th congressional district. While this declaration does not carry any legal or authoritative force, at this point it is actually a pretty safe bet that Tran will hold on and defeat incumbent Republican Michelle Steel. Tran leads by 581 votes with perhaps a little more than 3,000 votes to count. Additionally, he has had more votes than Steel in over 30 consecutive updates, dating all the way back to the wee hours of November 6.

This is a very important pickup for Democrats. Tran's victory brings the total number of seats won by Democrats in the 2024 House elections to 214. Republicans were victorious in 220 seats, although since Matt Gaetz has resigned from Congress in order to suppress a damning report about his behavior, the actual Republican total stands at 219.

December 3: Either Republicans 220-214 Democrats, or Republicans 219-215 Democrats. On Tuesday, December 3–one week from today–California counties will finally complete and certify their vote totals. As such, this is the latest day when we will know the winner of the 13th congressional district of California, the final undecided race in the entire nation. As of this writing, Republican incumbent John Duarte leads Democratic challenger Adam Gray by 207 votes, with about 3,000 remaining to be tallied. Important updates are expected tonight. Gray is also actively running a vote curing campaign (see here and here), and has the option of paying for a recount, as well.

January 3, 2025: Either Republicans 220-214 Democrats, or Republicans 219-215 Democrats. The 119th Congress starts. Republicans will begin their attempt to pass a reconciliation bill–which cannot be filibustered in the Senate–in order to extend the Trump tax cuts, expand the border wall with Mexico, and cut some renewable energy spending from the Inflation Reduction Act. Zero Democrats will vote for this bill, so Republicans can only afford to lose one or two votes, depending on the final result in CA-13. This narrow margin is already causing Republicans serious problems, as they are now discussing extending the Trump tax cuts for only four years, instead of the originally planned ten.

January 20, 2025: Either Republicans 219-214 Democrats, or Republicans 218-215 Democrats. Donald Trump takes office, which results in the immediate resignation of Republican Rep. Mike Waltz (FL-06) to become Trump's National Security Advisor. This doesn't actually change the math for House Republicans yet, as they can still only lose one or two votes, depending on what happens in CA-13. However…

Unknown, but probably sometime shortly after January 20. Either Republicans 218-214 Democrats or Republicans 217-215 Democrats. Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik resigns to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Now Republicans can only lose one or zero votes and still pass their reconciliation bill, and even that is if everyone actually shows up at work to vote. Good luck with that one, Republicans.

April 2, 2025. Either Republicans 220-214 Democrats or Republicans 219-215 Democrats. Special elections to fill the two vacant congressional seats in Florida caused by the resignations of Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz will take place on April 1. Republicans will win both elections, as these are extremely red districts. The victors will most likely be sworn into Congress ASAP by Speaker Mike Johnson, who will desperately need whatever votes he can get to pass basically anything. However, even at this point, Johnson can only lose one or two votes and still pass legislation without any help from Democrats, none of which is likely forthcoming on items such as reconciliation bills, budgets, or attempts to adjourn Congress so that Trump can recess-appoint his entire cabinet. Additionally, Stefanik's old seat in NY-21 will still be vacant, and a potentially competitive special election will be underway.

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This is the razor-thin math that confronts Republicans in the months ahead. Even if everything goes as well for them as it possibly could, and they hang on in both CA-13 and the upcoming NY-21 special election, by the late spring they will only be able to lose three votes and still pass legislation without any help from Democrats. However, they could also potentially have only a 219-216 majority by late spring, meaning they could only lose one vote and still pass anything–and even that is only if everyone actually shows up for work.

These narrow margins are why Trump doesn't have the votes to adjourn Congress indefinitely and then recess-appoint his entire cabinet. These narrow margins are why Republicans are unable to pass any new tax cuts, as they had originally hoped, and why they are now talking about extending the Trump tax cuts for only four years, instead of ten years. These narrow margins are why Speaker Mike Johnson is talking about taking a "scalpel" to the historic investments in renewable energy passed in the Inflation Reduction Act, instead of a "sledgehammer."

Every seat matters, as it determines just how far Trump and Republicans can go over the next two years. This is why we have to support ballot curing campaigns and, if necessary, a recount in California's 13th congressional district. This is why we have to put up as hard a fight as we can in the upcoming special election in New York's 21st congressional district. This is why we have to be prepared to run full-fledged campaigns in any other special elections that might take place. This is why we have to put as much pressure as possible on vulnerable Republicans in blue and purple districts by recruiting strong candidates in competitive seats for 2026. Every seat we fight for not only makes it easier to retake the House in 2026, but actually reduces what Republicans can accomplish from 2025-2026.