Balance of Power in the Senate

As published by Bowers News Media

Good afternoon. This is an update on the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. While the situation in the U.S. Senate is not quite as promising for Democrats as it is in the House of Representatives, a reality-based, numbers-based examination still reveals that, outside of confirming Donald Trump's nominees, Senate Republicans will have limited ability to pass legislation without being forced to negotiate with Democrats.

Balance of power: Starting on January 3, the balance of power in the U.S. Senate will be 53-47 in favor of Republicans. Further, starting on January 20, Republicans will also control the tiebreaking vote via Vice President J.D. Vance.

The filibuster is still around. Outside of votes on nominations and annual budget reconciliation bills, 60 votes are still required to end debate on legislation in the U.S. Senate. Since Senate Republicans only have 53 votes at their disposal, they are going to have to work with Democrats on pretty much everything outside of nominations and budget reconciliation bills. While it is perhaps possible that Senate Republicans will move to end the 60-vote requirement on legislative matters, they probably don't have the votes to make that happen and, even if they did, I for one would not try to stop them. If Republicans want to both make the Senate more democratic while also making it easier for Democrats to govern when we inevitably retake power, I say so be it.

What can Republicans pass? Unfortunately, with a 53-47 majority, plus the tiebreaking vote, we should all expect the vast majority of Trump's executive branch and judicial nominations to be cleared through the Senate.

We should also expect that the Senate will be able to pass a budget reconciliation bill during the first 100 days. However, this bill will focus only on ramping up defense spending, immigration enforcement, and fossil fuel production. While we Democrats are not going to like this bill, it also won't be norm-defying or democracy threatening. Mostly, it will just be boilerplate stuff any Republican administration would pass on defense, immigration and energy.

Notably, the first Republican budget reconciliation bill will not extend the Trump tax cuts. Instead, that is a fight Republicans will leave until later in 2025, when they attempt to pass the second reconciliation bill they will be allotted from 2025-2026. Due to narrow Republican majorities in the House, and and internal Republican opposition to the 2017 tax cuts from the SALT caucus, Republicans simply do not have the votes to extend the Trump tax cuts at this time. It will take them many months to work out a deal that can pass their narrow majorities, one that most likely waters down what was passed in 2017.

What Republicans can't pass through the Senate. In short, pretty much none of the crazy stuff from Project 2025 or Trump's "Agenda47" that requires congressional approval. As already mentioned, due to the filibuster, and with the exception of the annual budget reconciliation bill, Republicans won't be able to pass any legislation through the Senate at all without working with Democrats.

Further, as we have already witnessed with the rejection of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, it might actually be possible to block a few of Trump's most dangerous executive and judicial branch nominees. These include Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense, RFK Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence, and Kash Patel for FBI Director.

Here is a list of possible Republicans dissenters on these nominations, based in part on two articles from The Hill (see here and here):

• Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to impeach Trump, and as such is obviously not just going to roll over and give Trump whatever he wants;

• Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, who already sounds like he is a "no" on Hegseth;

• Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who voted to impeach Trump, represents a state Harris won, often bucks her own party, and is potentially vulnerable for re-election in 2026;

• Senator-elect John Curtis of Utah, who voiced support for censuring Trump in 2021, and has been vocal about the Senate defending its constitutional prerogatives;

• Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, who is potentially vulnerable for re-election in 2026, and who, based on her background, votes and comments, might have a big problem with nominees like Hegseth who have been accused of sexual assault and who are opposed to women serving in combat roles;

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who also voted to impeach Trump, did not vote for Trump in 2024, and often bucks her own party;

• Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who obviously hates Trump, has demonstrated a repeated willingness to stand up to Trump, and who is also a defender of Senate prerogatives;

• Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who is legitimately vulnerable for re-election in 2026;

• Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, who did not endorse Trump for president in 2024.

Defeating any nomination will take the support of four or more Republican Senators, plus the unified opposition of all Democrats. With this long list of potential Republican defectors, there is reason to believe that we can stop at least some of the worst nominees I listed above (Gabbard, Patel, RFK Jr., and Hegseth).

Putting pressure on Republicans in 2026. While I fully expect Democrats to retake the House of Representatives in 2026--perhaps even by a comfortable margin--winning back the U.S. Senate will be difficult. Democrats need to net four seats to pull this off in 2026, and Maine and North Carolina are their only two clear pickup opportunities. Additionally, Democrats will have have to defend two vulnerable seats of our own in Michigan and Georgia.

With the right candidates and a a national blue wave, Democrats would have a chance to pick up seats places like Alaska and Ohio, and maaaaaaybe also Iowa, Montana or Texas. None of those seats would be easy though, even in a good year for Democrats.

That said, there is every reason to believe that 2026 will be a good political environment for Democrats. The party out of power has done very well in the last five midterm elections, and also in the vast majority of midterm elections going back to 1938. If Democrats can recruit strong candidates in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio, and if they can defend Michigan and Georgia, then taking back the Senate in 2026 will become a possibility.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has done a consistently good job recruiting, financing and staffing strong Democratic candidates in competitive Senate districts. Since 2006, they have helped Democrats in key Senate races outperform national Democratic margins in the vast majority of cases. This allowed Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate in many elections when doing so seemed out of reach, including 2006, 2012, 2020 and 2022. If anyone can pull it off in 2026, the DSCC can.

Also, every step of the way, at Bowers News Media, I will continue to provide you detailed news explainers on every major development in the U.S. Senate, and also ways to take impactful action on those developments when they occur.